Photo: Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
The extended 2020 election-denial saga, which culminated in the January 6 attempted insurrection, really began late on Election Night, when Donald Trump seized on a temporary lead to claim victory even though analysis of the vote showed Joe Biden likely to win when all the votes were counted (the contest was finally “called” for Biden by the Associated Press and other major media outlets on November 7). The source of Trump’s early lead was a phenomenon known as the “red mirage” based on the fact that the in-person Election Day ballots disproportionately cast by Republicans were typically counted first. But eventually, dispelling the “red mirage” was a so-called “blue shift” as mail ballots disproportionately cast by Democrats were counted. Trump, of course, asserted without evidence that the “red mirage” was not a mirage at all and that the “blue shift” reflected ballot-box stuffing. Indeed, on Election Night, he called on the U.S. Supreme Court to stop the counting of these allegedly fraudulent “late” votes (though all of them were actually cast by Election Day).
Even though Trump has already asserted again and again that the 2024 election has been “rigged,” which suggests he is very likely to contest any defeat, his strategy for claiming victory is a bit less clear. Indeed, there have been some pretty good reasons to believe the “red mirage” and “blue shift” would be significantly less pronounced this time around. With the COVID pandemic having ended, voting by mail would clearly drop from 2020 levels, as it did in the 2022 midterms (in part because some states reinstated more stringent requirements for casting “absentee ballots” once the public-health emergency ended). To the extent that some of the partisan disparity in voting methods was attributable to different perceptions of the risks involved in voting in person in 2020, perhaps the disparity would fade as well, aside from the fact that the Republican Party (and grudgingly and inconsistently, Trump himself) was avidly promoting voting by mail as an option for its own voters.
But now, a new survey from YouGov-Economist suggests that 2020’s big split between Democrats and Republicans in how they plan to vote could recur to an alarming degree. Voting by mail is, in fact, likely to decline: According to a Pew analysis of validated voters, 46 percent used mail ballots in 2020. The new survey suggests only 31 percent plan to vote by mail (either via the postal service or utilizing drop boxes) this year. But the partisan gap in voting methods hasn’t gone away. Fully 54 percent of those planning to vote for Trump, as opposed to 35 percent who say they will vote for Harris, expect to vote in person on Election Day. Meanwhile, 42 percent of Harris supporters plan to utilize mail ballots, as opposed to 20 percent of Trump supporters. So it’s likely that once again Trump will do significantly better than Harris in the votes tabulated first (their voters, interestingly enough, are almost equally likely to vote early in person, which is available to one degree or another in most states; these votes are counted first in some places and later in others).
There are some exacerbating factors that could help produce a red mirage/blue shift in the key battleground states. Both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin refuse to allow election offices to preprocess mail ballots until Election Day; this slows down the count generally but also pushes back mail-ballot counts even more. The Trump campaign is adopting a far more aggressive posture than in 2020 with respect to challenging ballots (and voters) it considers suspect and slowing down both vote-counting and results certifications. And Trump himself is if anything more adamant than ever in his claims that many millions of Democratic votes will be fraudulent (he’s even said he would win California if the votes were counted fairly).
So in this razor-close contest with Kamala Harris, if Trump gains an early lead in most of the battleground states on Election Night based on another bid advantage in in-person Election Day voting, is there any doubt he’ll again claim victory? Is there any doubt a majority of his supporters will believe he’s won and begin celebrating, while dismissing the TV pundits warning it’s too early? The former president’s 2024 endgame if he again narrowly loses is unclear. But whatever he decides to do will almost certainly begin with a red mirage.
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