Snap Polls Show VP Debate Was As Close As Presidential Race

Photo: Angela Weiss/AFP/Getty Images

Those rating the vice-presidential debate on points were impressed by J.D. Vance’s fluid delivery. And spinners in both parties naturally thought their man had an advantage. But snap polls of debate viewers indicated that the Vance-Walz encounter, like the presidential contest itself, was a dead heat.

Debate sponsor CBS News and YouGov found that 42 percent of voters who watched the debate thought Vance had won, but 41 percent thought Tim Walz had won. Seventeen percent judged it a tie. Both candidates obtained significant boosts in favorability after the impressively civil event. Echoing most informed analysis, CBS/YouGov showed viewers assessing Walz as stronger on the abortion and health-care issues, with Vance having a slight advantage on immigration and the economy.

CNN’s insta-poll showed similar results, with 51 percent regarding Vance as having done a better job as compared to 49 percent for Walz.

And Politico/Focaldata’s poll of likely voters showed a clean 50 percent to 50 percent split. Crosstabs for this poll showed Democrats and Republican overwhelmingly backing their party’s veep candidate as the debate winner, though among self-identified independents Walz had a 58 percent to 42 percent advantage. Other breakdowns were about what you’d expect:

A largely civil exchange that was short on breakout viral moments, the debate left watchers mostly retreating to their partisan corners. …

Walz’s strongest ratings came from younger people, particularly those ages 25-34, those with college degrees, and Black and Latino respondents — all key components of the Democratic coalition that powered President Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump in 2020.

Vance, meanwhile, performed best with people over the age of 55, white voters and those without a college degree.

The lack of “breakout viral moments” probably means that secondary coverage of the debate won’t move opinions much, though it is notable that the Harris-Walz campaign has already cut an ad featuring Vance’s evasive answers about the 2020 election and Trump’s refusal to concede defeat.

Given the overriding reality that VP debates (and for that matter, VP candidates) rarely have a significant impact on presidential elections, this close debate suggests the very close Harris-Trump contest will likely go down to the wire.