The future looked so bright for a minute.
Photo: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images
One of the many interesting things about the abrupt change in the trajectory of the 2024 presidential election since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee is that once very lively questions that had fallen by the wayside are returning. Jamelle Bouie of the New York Times asked a pertinent one, now that we can again contemplate the possibility that Donald Trump will lose this contest:
Of course, it is still too early to make any real prediction about November. But the sharp reversal in Trump’s electoral fortunes raises an obvious question worth thinking about now: If Trump loses, and perhaps especially if he loses badly, what comes next for the Republican Party?
Bouie went on to suggest that this is a very open question because there are no real signs that, win or lose, Trump will loosen his grip on the party he conquered so completely. At last month’s post-assassination-attempt Republican National Convention, it seemed that Trump had addressed the issue of a successor — both as party leader and as warrior-chieftain of the MAGA movement — by choosing Ohio senator J.D. Vance as his running mate. Vance was young, articulate, a successful businessman at the nexus of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, and the author of a best-selling memoir. Most of all, Vance was very Trumpian and the favorite of MAGA mainstays like Steve Bannon, Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump Jr. It was easy to envision the famous hillbilly turned demagogue wowing rallies during the campaign with bombastic salvos against the worn-out liberalism of Biden and his radical-left masters, beating up Harris in a debate, then going on to four years as the ultimate “Apprentice.”
It really hasn’t worked out that way.
First of all, for whatever reason, Trump’s vetters and Vance himself did not adequately prepare for the pounding he would take from people who actually read the many words he had written and spoken during his brief but intense career as a “populist” culture warrior. Sure, they anticipated a rehearsal of some of the nasty things he said about Trump before becoming his acolyte, but probably not to the extent to which the Ohioan’s record undercut the campaign’s desire to talk about anything other than reproductive rights. Even more important, Vance’s rich background in provocative commentary turned him from would-be attack dog into prey at a time when the GOP very much wanted to keep the focus on Democrats and their many problems. And then, when said Democrats pulled off their switcheroo, Vance was immediately compared to Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, and generally found lacking. His favorability numbers started out low and sagged, even as Harris and Walz rose in the polls and became social-media stars.
Just as it’s not too late for Trump’s candidacy to recover, Vance could definitely get his mojo back. But he’s not off to a good start. And if the Trump-Vance ticket does lose, the future may not look so bright for Trump’s heir apparent.
Most veep nominees who lose the first time they appear on a presidential ticket have less-than-robust futures in national politics. In this century, Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan once burned brightly in the GOP firmament but soon faded; Tim Kaine returned to a productive but obscure Senate career. There have been five non-incumbent losing vice-presidential candidates since World War II who later ran for president: Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (on Nixon’s ticket in 1960 and a presidential candidate in 1964), Ed Muskie (veep nominee in 1968, a candidate for the White House in 1972), Bob Dole (Ford’s running mate in 1976 and then a candidate for president in 1980, 1988, and 1996), Joe Lieberman (Gore’s veep in 2000, a presidential aspirant in 2004), and John Edwards (as in Kerry-Edwards ’04 and then a candidate for president four years later). All but Dole failed to win a presidential nomination, and it took him 20 years as a legendary Senate leader before finally getting his big chance, only to get smoked by Bill Clinton in 1996.
In other words, if Vance wants to rule the GOP and the MAGA movement, he should pray for victory in November or his once-bright prospects might yield to a future of Hillbilly Elegy readings at county GOP fundraisers and Knights of Columbus dinners.
As for the GOP in the event of a Trump-Vance defeat, a lot may depend on the circumstances. Unless Harris does win big, and perhaps even if she does, Trump is giving every indication that he will seek to overturn a 2024 defeat just as vociferously as he denied losing in 2020. Success in such a lawless venture is unimaginable, and it’s impossible to foresee how a second straight failed insurrection would affect both the 45th president and a party that might eventually get sick of following him off the cliff. It’s possible, I suppose that if Republicans embrace a second consecutive stolen-election fantasy and have no better options, they could swallow all the words they said this year about Biden and nominate an 82-year-old Trump for a fourth consecutive time. Only FDR has matched that achievement, and he never lost; in this scenario, Trump would join Henry Clay and William Jennings Bryan as two-time losers who could kick the habit of running for president. In any event, if Trump loses and is available in 2028, the last person on earth who would be in a position to challenge him is J.D. Vance.
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