What the Polls Are Saying After Trump’s Conviction

A two-day national Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted online after Trump’s guilty verdict, found that one in ten registered Republican voters were less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction, and one in four independent voters were less likely to support him as well.

However, NBC News senior political director Mark Murray cautions against over-interpreting that:

Of the 2,556 adults who responded to the poll, 41 percent said they would vote for Biden, and 38 percent said they would vote for Trump — which is a difference within the poll’s margin of error.

Of registered Republicans, 35 percent said Trump’s guilty verdict made it more likely they’d vote for him. 18 percent of independents said the same. And 56 percent of registered Republicans said the verdict would have no effect on their vote, as did the same percentage of independents.

Regarding other views of the verdict, 53 percent of respondents said they didn’t think Trump should be jailed, while 46 percent said he should. A slim majority also thought the hush-money case against Trump wasn’t politically motivated, while 46 percent said it was — in order to keep Trump from becoming president again.

A larger majority, 60 percent, said it was important that the three pending trials Trump faces should be completed before the election — which is at this point extremely unlikely.

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